RAM prices have significantly increased in recent months, which is expected to negatively affect the smartphone market in the near future. Analyst firm Counterpoint has updated its forecasts for 2026, now predicting a 2.1% decline in global smartphone shipments instead of stable levels.
The rise in memory prices is anticipated to continue, with Counterpoint warning of a potential increase of up to 40% through the second quarter of 2026.
Currently, the Bill of Materials (BoM) for low-end smartphones is 25% higher than at the start of the year, while mid-range and high-end devices have seen increases of 15% and 10%, respectively. If the second quarter forecast holds true, BoMs could rise further by 8% to 15%.
Counterpoint expects a decrease in shipments across all smartphone companies. Initially, Oppo and vivo were projected to increase their shipments next year, but the revised forecast indicates a decline. Xiaomi and Honor are expected to experience a more significant drop than previously anticipated.
Major companies like Apple and Samsung will also be affected, though not as severely. Senior Analyst Yang Wang noted that these companies are better positioned to handle the upcoming challenges, while others, particularly Chinese OEMs, may struggle to balance market share and profit margins.
Smartphone manufacturers are already adjusting to rising costs by restructuring their product lines and reducing specifications. Senior Analyst Shenghao Bai mentioned that some models are experiencing downgrades in components such as camera modules, displays, and memory configurations.
Analysts also predict that the Average Selling Price (ASP) for 2026 will be higher than initially expected, with the new forecast indicating a 6.9% increase instead of the original 3.9%. This suggests that smartphone makers may focus on promoting more premium models, which are less affected by rising RAM prices due to lower RAM costs relative to their overall BoM.
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